Laz Aleman: Greene Publishing, Inc.
If the AccuWeather forecast is correct, the Atlantic hurricane season this year will likely be below normal, a potential outcome of El Niño’s limiting effect on the formation of storms. It all depends on how quickly and strongly El Niño develops in the coming months, according to AccuWeather, an American media company that provides commercial weather forecasting services globally.
As is, AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting 10 named storms in the 2017 season, which officially begins on Thursday, June 1. Of the 10 storms, the meteorologists predict that five will turn into hurricanes and three could become major hurricanes. "The big factor is going to be the fact that we now believe that El Niño will come onboard some time during the summer and will continue all the way through the rest of the hurricane season," said AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. El Niño, which is characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, typically causes episodes of strong westerly winds in the tropical Atlantic, which inhibit the development of storms, according to AccuWeather. "That's the number one reason we're going with just below normal," Kottlowski said, qualifying that although the transition is likely, it's too early to tell how quickly El Niño will develop or how strong it will become. “If the El Niño pattern becomes moderate in the late summer and fall, meaning that episodes of these winds are more frequent, the season could end early,” said Kottlowski, but added that “despite these uncertainties, two to four tropical impacts are forecast for the US mainland.”
Meteorologists are keeping a close eye on coastal sections of the northern Gulf of Mexico, particularly Florida and the Southeast coast, for development. That’s because, according to Kottlowski, analog years, or those years in which the climatic pattern was similar to the current one, suggest that Florida and the Southeast may be particularly vulnerable to impacts. “Deep, warm water and high sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean threaten to support at least one high impact hurricane similar to Joaquin in 2015 and Matthew in 2016,” said Kottlowski.
AccuWeather notes that the 2017 season follows the deadliest season in more than 10 years for the Atlantic basin. It references the 15 named storms that the 2016 season spawned, seven of which became hurricanes. It was, by all account, the costliest Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.
Founded in 1962 and renamed “AccuWeather” in 1971, the company, which is headquartered in State College, Pa., markets weather products and services worldwide.