The familiar acronym NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization and has been around for eight decades since 1948. It was established to counter the Soviet Union buildup in the Warsaw Pact countries beginning the Cold War. Initially, it consisted of the U.S., Canada and most western European nations. Since the Cold War ended in 1991 with the breakup of the Soviet Union, NATO has grown to more than thirty nations. It has been America’s most successful treaty.
The United States contributes about a quarter of the budget that the Brussels-based organization expends. We have about 75 thousand troops forward deployed to NATO bases, primarily in Germany, England, Italy and Poland. Back in the 1960s, during a disagreement, France kicked U.S. bases out of their country and we haven’t returned since.
During my Air Force career (1970-97), I had two NATO assignments. In the mid-70’s, I was assigned to a fighter base in Southeast England and in the early 80’s, another fighter base in West Germany. At that time, with the Cold War still raging, there were about one-third of a million American servicemen in Western Europe, much smaller than today. I was part of several joint NATO exercises where allies would train together, most notably Operation Deep Furrow, in Western Turkey, whose objective was to defend the Straits of the Bosporus, where the Black Sea empties into the Mediterranean.
Donald Trump has been complaining recently about NATO. He has suggested that, perhaps, it is time for the U.S. to withdraw from the treaty and allow Western Europe to defend itself against the Russian Bear. Disagreements over support for Ukraine, lack of assistance with our conflict against Iran, and the high cost all have had a corroding effect on NATO in Trump’s mind. Recall that Spain would not allow the US to use our bases in their country to support Operation Epic Fury. To show he means business, Trump has ordered the removal of about five thousand troops from Vilcek, Germany.
The western European core of NATO doesn’t do very much to defend themselves. They’ve become highly dependent on imported oil and gas, much of it from Iran which is now closed off. Their maritime powers, England and France, are pretty weak. You would think they would be trying to assist the U.S. with opening the Strait of Hormuz, but no. They do receive fossil fuels from Russia, but even that is tenuous with the long-standing war in Eastern Europe over The Ukraine.
The motivation for the U.S. creating NATO was to prevent another destructive European war like the two in the early 20th Century that cost the lives of more than a half million American soldiers. To that extent, we’ve been successful. The question: is it time for the US to let Europe fend for itself?
There are arguments on both sides. There might be an advantage to forward-deploying troops, but that is expensive. Can we forward deploy using Naval assets instead? If we decide to forward deploy only on a temporary basis, that is very disruptive to military families.
I really don’t see this happening. Instead, I think Trump is blustering to get the Europeans to be more supportive. After all, we were refused landing rights during the Yom Kippur War (1973) when we came to Israel’s defense. Subsequently, that disagreement proved temporary and we worked through it. The Abraham Accords may allow a shift (rebalancing) in some weight from NATO to the Gulf States. At this point, I think our cultural ties to Europe are too great to cause the U.S. to withdraw from the alliance.