Joe Boyles
Guest Columnist
Most of this article was written and published six weeks ago. Given the events of this past weekend, it is appropriate to update the situation in Iran. Operation Epic Fury, begun early on Saturday, has changed the dynamic considerably. American and Israeli airpower led by United States Central Command, which has regional responsibility, struck early and hard, decapitating the Revolutionary government and military leadership, as well as targeting both offensive and defensive capabilities.
The Islamic Republic regime is facing its most imminent threat since its revolutionary founding in 1979, nearly half a century ago. The threat is from within. The populous is taking to the streets protesting runaway inflation, lack of goods and shortages of water and electricity, all basic needs. The regime is responding by attacking their own people and shutting down the internet. Thanks to Elon Musk’s Starlink, there is some information transparency. Tens of thousands have died and more have been arrested.
More than 91 million people call themselves Iranian. They are Persians rather than Arabs. This nation occupies a strategic crossroads in southwest Asia, bordering on the north side of the Persian Gulf oil trade route. To the west is Iraq and to the east are the “stans” including Afghanistan and Pakistan. As everyone knows, the nation (and everyone else in the Gulf) is rich in oil and gas.
There have been previous uprisings by the Iranian people, but this one seems different and more imminent. Regime change seems a real possibility. The Trump Administration is keeping a close eye on the evolving situation, as is NATO. Our Naval assets have never been stronger. Carrier Battle Groups (Lincoln and Ford) are stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean and Indian Ocean with supporting warships.
The Ayatollah Ali Khameini had been in power of the theocracy for 37 years, most of the life of the Islamic Republic. He was 86 and out of touch and now, room temperature. Many of his immediate subordinates are also dead. The Islamic Republic is scrambling to find a new leader. I’m reminded of the last year of the Nazi regime where Hitler held the seat of power but was unconnected to the collapse around him. The regime can continue without the Ayatollah because of the repressive military and political infrastructure. Of course, the military has been weakened by the 12-day war last year that saw American airpower destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The Iranian regime has never been weaker. Their proxies (Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas) are all but destroyed, although Hezbollah may retain some residual strength. Their economy is in shambles. Recently, they warned the people of Tehran (nine million) that evacuation was imminent because of shortage of water. Their allies (Russia, Venezuela, Cuba) are either engaged in other problems or tottering. Help from China is possible, but North Korea can only send minimal assistance over long distance.
One of the things that makes this time different than previous unrest is that many, if not most, of the Persian Gulf nations have joined the US and Israel against a common enemy, the Islamic Republic. Usually, it is Israel against everybody else. The Abraham Accords seem to have jelled most of these nations, led by Saudi Arabia, against the common enemy – Iran. Also, Iran’s attacks have targeted every regional nation except for Qatar. Lesson: don’t make your neighbors mad at you.
Iran’s desperate counterattacks are less than half what they were during the June 2025 conflict. This suggests their arsenal is weakened. Some of these offensive missiles have gotten through and caused casualties, but not many.
It appears that nearly all attacks thus far are coming from the air. There may be some covert activity on the ground by special forces, but I see no evidence yet. Trump has signaled that the Iranian people need to replace their government and strive for democratic reforms. The royal Palavi family is openly saying they are willing to lead their nation toward democracy. Demonstrations around the world against the Islamic Regime indicate widespread support for a “new birth of freedom” as Abraham Lincoln once said.
No doubt, I will update this unfolding situation next week. We need to pray that a democratic Iran emerges and joins the community of nations as a partner rather than a belligerent. Trump kept his promise, “help is on the way.” Now, the people need to respond in kind and take control of their nation. The road ahead is rocky, but the promise is great.