As the second anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine War approaches, the front in the east wrapping around to Crimea has settled into a stalemate where neither side makes much, if any, progress. The Russians are unable to gain ground, and the Ukrainians are equally dug-in and unwilling to budge. The Zelenskyy government says the war will continue until the Russians are expelled from Ukrainian soil (but no promises on the Crimean Peninsula). Is that achievable? Putin doesn’t say much of anything.
This, in many ways, is like the Western Front during World War I. Following the German advance across the Benelux in August 1914 and the French “Miracle of the Marne” in early September, both sides dug into trench lines facing each other in Northern France. Over the next four years, the Western Front never varied more than ten miles in either direction across 400 miles of Europe, from the English Channel to Switzerland. That is the classic definition of stalemate, a tactical war with no strategic movement.