Florida TaxWatch
Contributor
On Tuesday, June 3, Florida TaxWatch released economic commentary: Florida Economic Forecast: 2024 – 2030 / Q1 2025. The data upon which these forecasts are based are provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group, a research-based consulting firm that provides economic studies to help guide and inform business leaders and policymakers.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said, “Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion, which may be contributed in part to an abundance of natural amenities, low cost of living, and no personal income tax. Over the past several decades, the number of people moving into Florida increased, and the number of people moving out of Florida remained steady. This is the main reason why Florida TaxWatch is focused on workforce and housing affordability, quality health care and a multi-year funding process for critical water infrastructure that will help sustain Florida’s successful growth.”
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said, “Overall, Florida’s economic growth pattern will match or surpass the national economic growth pattern in most economic indicators for the next five years, including population and net migration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism. Florida TaxWatch undertakes this important work each quarter and is cautiously optimistic that Florida’s economy will remain strong through 2030.”
The key takeaways from the report include the following outliers.
Population and Net Migration: Florida’s population is projected to increase by about 1.4 million people (from 23.4 million to 24.8 million) from 2025 to 2030. Although the state’s overall population is projected to continue to increase, the number of people moving to Florida each day is projected to decrease from 972 in 2024 to 789 in 2030. This reflects a shift in the balance between people moving into Florida and people moving out of Florida. The current growth rate of the population is 1.6 percent and is projected to decrease to 1.1 percent by the end of 2030. As Florida’s net migration decreases from 972 new residents each day to 891 over the next year (a negative 8.3 percent growth rate), the population will continue to increase, but at a decreasing rate. Top destinations for those leaving Florida are either Georgia, Texas, Tennessee or North Carolina, states with no personal income tax and/or a lower cost of living than Florida.
Employment: The number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from almost 10.0 million in 2024 to 10.9 million in 2030. During this same period, Florida’s unemployment rate is projected to increase from 3.4 percent in 2024, slowly, to 4.1 percent in 2030. Unlike the 2024 Q4 forecast, where the unemployment rate was consistently increasing, this forecast shows an increase until 2027 and then a gradual decrease until 2030. The projected unemployment rate for 2025 as of Q1 2025 is 0.7 percentage points higher than reported in Q4 2024.
GDP and Income Growth: Florida had a real GDP growth rate of 3.6 percent in 2024, projected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2030. Comparing the difference in the growth rate of Florida’s GDP and real GDP, one can see that the difference is becoming smaller in the long run. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to increase until 2027 before decreasing in the coming years.
Tourism: An impact study conducted by the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association in 2023 estimated 156.9 million visitors spent a record $131 billion, an average of $359 million per day. Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and is responsible for $76.4 billion in employee wages. Thanks to tourism and the revenue tourism generates, every Florida household saves $1,910 a year on state and local taxes. Tourism is projected to increase through 2030. The growth rate of visitors in the state is expected to see a sharp drop in 2025, after which it further decreases to zero before rising to 0.6 percent by 2030.
Overall, Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next six years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years. Florida’s economic growth, expressed as real GDP, will continue to grow through 2030, albeit at a reduced rate. The number of new jobs available in Florida is projected to decline until 2027 before rising again. The unemployment rate follows the same pattern, increasing until 2027 before gradually decreasing. This can be, in part, attributed to the easing GDP of Florida after 2027.
To learn more and access the full commentary, including Florida TaxWatch’s previous Economic Forecasts, visit www.floridataxwatch.org.