Weather forecasters are cautioning Floridians not to be lulled into complacency by the apparent slow start of the 2026 Atlantic season, noting that its most active phase will likely occur between mid-August and mid-October.
So far this year, only two short-lived and relatively mild tropical storms have occurred in the Gulf: Arthur in June and Bertha in July. Otherwise, the season has been relatively calm, making it the slowest starting since 2009. The experts underscore that it’s early in the season, with some three-plus more months to go until it officially ends on Nov. 30. Its peak traditionally is reached on Sept. 10.
The present calm, according to weather models, is expected to continue through late August, although some models suggest that storm activity could possibly kick up by mid-month.
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University have released updated mid-season hurricane outlooks, largely reasserting their pre-season outlooks that called for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin, if the numbers vary slightly. Both cite a strengthening El Niño as the main cause for the expected lower than normal activity.
NOAA’s revised forecast calls for seven to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), two to six hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and zero to two major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher and the capability of attaining a category of three, four or five). NOAH’s initial forecast called for a total of eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.
Colorado State University’s revised forecast also has been downscaled to nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane. Its preseason forecast in April called for 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes of a category three or higher.
The average Atlantic Hurricane season, according to NOAA, typically produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on climate data from 1991 to 2020.
Both forecasts attribute the lower expected activity to two key factors: one being a stronger than usual El Niño and the other warmer-than-normal water temperatures across the Atlantic, although satellite images reportedly show pockets of cooler-than-normal waters in parts of the ocean.
El Niño, which is expected to last through the fall, is a cyclical weather pattern that brings warmer-than-normal water to the Eastern and Central Pacific and creates atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic Ocean that tend to suppress tropical development. The storm suppression is largely attributed to shearing winds that are hostile to hurricane formation by tearing apart the vertical stack of a forming tropical system.
Along with creating above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, El Niño is also credited with altering the position and strength of the subtropical jet stream, a belt of extremely fast winds high in the atmosphere whose strong winds account for the shearing of hurricane formation.
Already this year, according to meteorologists, a Super El Niño has taken hold, creating periodic conditions that last manifested in 2015, and before that in 1997, 1991 and 1982. The event is credited with having a massive influence on weather patterns around the globe, including the Atlantic hurricane season.
The current Super El Niño, according to some of NOAA’s computer forecast models, could be the strongest since record keeping began in 1950 and produce atmospheric impacts never before seen.
“A strong event could have different impacts than those traditionally observed as opposed to similar impacts with greater intensity,” NOAA staff is quoted saying.
The question remaining, according to meteorologists, is how quickly the Super El Niño develops and strengthens and what intensity it achieves.
NOAA adds that although a strong El Niño can virtually shut down hurricane formation in the Atlantic, it will conversely encourage “homegrown” tropical systems in the northern Gulf and along the Southeast coast. Considered weaker and shorter-lived than their Atlantic-brewed counterparts, the homegrown variety generally have a shorter lead time before impact, according to weather experts.
Warmer ocean temperatures, of course, act as the main fuel for hurricane formation, providing the essential heat energy and moisture needed to power, sustain and rapidly intensify tropical storms.
Meteorologists’ message to Floridians is not to let down their guards. They remind residents that it only takes one direct-hitting storm to cause extreme destruction, loss of life and long-term recovery challenges.