Notwithstanding the warmer-than-normal December temperatures of late, weather forecasters are predicting a wetter and chillier than usual winter for the Southeast in the remaining months.
Thank or blame the unusual pattern -- depending on your preference -- on one of the strongest El Niños on record.
It’s to say, according to forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), that this year's El Niño is expected to influence weather and climate patterns across the country by affecting the position of the Pacific jet stream.
El Niño (The Little Boy or Christ Child in Spanish) is described as “an irregularly occurring and complex series of climatic changes affecting the equatorial Pacific region and beyond every few years, characterized by the appearance of unusually warm, nutrient-poor water off northern Peru and Ecuador, typically in late December.”
The NOAA forecasters say that the southern part of the United States is likely to experience colder than usual weather, especially in Texas and the Gulf Coast states. They also, expect that the winter will be wetter than average over much of the southern part of the country, from California to Florida and up the East Coast.
What’s more, according to the NOAA forecasters, factors other than El Niño will play a role in the weather, including the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South.
In plain English, according to the forecasters, they can’t say exactly when or where, but the winter “could get ugly.”
“It is important to remember that this forecast is for the winter season as a whole and does not project when and where storms may occur,” the NOAA forecasters report.
But they take note of the presence of a strong El Niño that they say should exert a significant influence over this winter’s weather.
“While the temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”
“We have more confidence in the forecast this year, compared to other years with the strong El Niño. El Niño is normally a positive for the U.S. in the winter. It can lead to milder than normal temperatures in the north, and beneficial rains to California,” adds Halpert.
He notes that this year’s El Niño is already strong and is getting stronger, with the latest forecast showing that it could peak near or at record levels. Additionally, there’s a 95 percent chance that it will continue through winter, Halpert says.
The benchmark El Niño year was reportedly in the winter of 1997-98, when storms caused significant disasters across the U.S., including flooding and tornadoes in Florida.
The Weather Channel echoes NOAA’s forecast. It sees cooler-than-average temperatures likely to prevail this winter from Arizona eastward through Texas and into Florida.
“This cooler southern tier may partially be a reflection of generally wetter-than-average conditions in a strong El Niño,” the Weather Channel reports. “In other words, more clouds and rain leads to cooler temperatures, as the southern or subtropical branch of the jet stream is typically stronger.”
It further notes that the climate models are in agreement with the established and “classic El Niño winter signature of above-average temperatures in the northern tier of the U.S. and below-average temperatures in the southern tier of the U.S.”