Lazaro Aleman, news@greenepublishing.com
With the Atlantic hurricane season fast approaching, a tropical storm reported off the coast of Africa earlier this week, and weather experts predicting above-normal activity, it may be time to take stock of the situation.
According to forecasters, the 2022 season is expected to be similar to last year’s, which produced 21 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes, making it the sixth season in a row to be above normal. The 2021 season, in fact, ranks as the third most active in hurricane history, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Also worrisome to forecasters is the increased strength and rapid intensification of hurricanes in recent years because of the warmer ocean temperatures. Hurricane Michael, which devastated the Florida Panhandle in 2018, is a perfect example. The hurricane was a Category Three until it hit the warm waters of the Gulf and quickly strengthened, striking the Panama City and Mexico Beach area as a Category Five.
Five of last year’s storms, in fact, experienced rapid intensification, say the experts. In 2020, 10 of that season’s storms underwent rapid intensification.
The trend is one that experts expect to continue, given rising global temperatures and the heating effect that it’s having on Gulf and other tropical waters. They point out that in the last 18 years, the continental Units States has increasingly been hit by major hurricanes.
Already, they say, water temperatures in the Gulf are warmer than usual. Never mind that a rejuvenated La Niña could produce conditions even more favorable for an active hurricane season.
Besides warmer ocean water temperatures, other factors that contribute to an active season include the lack of wind shear, heavy moisture and a storm’s very organization, according to meteorologists.
They note that more Category Four and Five hurricanes have slammed into the U.S. in the last five years than have in the previous 54 years.
That said, the latest seasonal forecast issued by the Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecasting team on April 7, predicts 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, four major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 160. Compare this with the long-term averages for the 20-year period between 1991 and 2020, which seasonally averaged 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123, according to the CSU.
The ACE is essentially a measure of the overall activity of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes, in terms of their collective strengths and durations during a season.
The CSU Outlook puts the odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. at 71 percent. It puts the chance of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast or Florida Peninsula at 47 percent. And it puts the odds of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast at 46 percent. When it comes to the Caribbean, the forecast puts the chance of a major hurricane hitting this area at 60 percent.
Forecasters cite two main reasons for this season’s above normal forecast. One is the likelihood of La Niña or neutral conditions being present during the peak of the hurricane season in August through October.
Neutral or La Niña conditions portent an active hurricane season, whereas La Niña’s opposite, El Niño, favors a slower-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season. The reason, per weather experts, is that El Niño increases upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, creating a shear effect that can tear storms apart.
Forecasters expect that neutral conditions will prevail during this coming season’s peak hurricane months.
The other reason is sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which are described currently as near average in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic and warmer than normal in the Caribbean and greater subtropical Atlantic. Which pattern, the experts say, suggests a more active hurricane season.
Earlier this week, forecasters were already tracking a tropical wave off the coast of Africa and a disturbance in the Atlantic off the coast of northern Florida, although the season doesn’t officially begin until June 1.
More and more in recent years, in fact, storms have been developing in May, which has led to consideration of moving the official start of the hurricane season two weeks earlier, to May 15.
Regardless of the start date, the message from safety experts remains the same: Now is the time for residents living along coastal and other hurricane prone areas to begin preparing for the season and putting together emergency plans and kits.